Key Findings

A sudden surge by Elizabeth May and the federal Green Party has eroded popular support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the governing Liberal Party in Manitoba, a new Probe Research survey for the Winnipeg Free Press shows.

For the first time ever, the federal Greens have cracked the double-digit threshold of support among decided and leaning Manitoba voters, as more than one-in-ten respondents (13%, up from 7% in March) now say they would cast a ballot for a Green candidate in their riding. The rise of the Greens coincides with a corresponding decrease in support for the Liberals, as fewer than one-quarter of those surveyed province-wide plan to back the Liberals in the upcoming federal election in October (24%, down from 31% in March and 45% in the 2015 election).

This decrease in support for the Liberals comes as good news to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, who continue to maintain the highest level of support among the four major federal parties (43%, +1% vs. March). Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP continue to enjoy the backing of slightly fewer than one-in-five Manitobans (17%, unchanged since March).

Federal Party Support in Manitoba - June 2019
Federal Party Support in Manitoba - 2015 - 2019

The fluid dynamics of federal voter support bode especially well for the Conservatives in Winnipeg, where the Liberals are defending seven of the city’s eight seats. Support for the Conservatives in Winnipeg has climbed five points since March (from 30% to 35%), while fewer than three-in-ten voters now back the Liberals (29%, down from 40%). At the same time, one-in-five support the NDP (20%, vs. 21% in March) and 13 per cent support the Greens (+7%). As usual, more than half of voters in rural and northern Manitoba (56%) continue to back the Conservatives.

The Conservatives hold statistically significant leads over the other parties in northeast and southwest Winnipeg, while the Liberals narrowly lead the Conservatives in the northwest portion of the city. The two parties are statistically tied in southeast Winnipeg, while support for all four parties is within the margin of error in the city’s core neighbourhoods.

Regional Federal Party Support
Party Support Across Winnipeg Regions

The impact of the Greens’ surge is most pronounced among a key demographic group that voted Liberal in large numbers in 2018. Nearly one-in-five younger adults prefer the Greens (18%, vs. 10% among those 55+) compared to 17 per cent of those 18-34 who say they would vote for a Liberal candidate. The Conservatives, meanwhile, continue to enjoy the most voter support among most demographic groups – particularly men, older voters, affluent Manitobans and those with less formal education.

Federal Party Support in Manitoba

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus  Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey. ​

Survey Instrument

The survey instrument was designed by Probe Research.

Methodology

Between June 4th and 17th, 2019, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 258 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​

For more information:

Curtis Brown, Principal

(204) 926-6565

curtis@probe-research.com