Key Findings

On the eve of an early election campaign in Manitoba, Brian Pallister's governing Progressive Conservatives are holding onto a firm lead in public support over their NDP and Liberal competitors. PC support remains unchanged at 42 per cent province-wide, but the number of Manitobans intending to vote for the Wab Kinew-led NDP has fallen by four percentage points since March. Meanwhile, Manitoba's Green Party has seen its popularity double (to 14%) during the lead-up to last week's election call.

Party Support in Manitoba - June 2019
Party Support in Manitoba - 2016 - 2019

Within battleground Winnipeg, competition between the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats remains fierce - both parties are now tied at 32 per cent - while growth in Green Party support appears to be at the expense of the Manitoba Liberals.

Party Support in Winnipeg - June 2019
Party Support in Winnipeg - 2016 - 2019
Party Support Across Winnipeg Regions

The PCs continue to hold a commanding lead outside of Winnipeg,  although the surge in Green Party support also extends beyond Winnipeg’s Perimeter Highway.

The PC party is popular across most socio-demographic subgroups, with the exception of women, Indigenous voters and less affluent Manitobans. These groups are all now more divided in terms of their provincial party preferences.

Provincial Party Support in Manitoba – Socio-demographic Sub-groups
Party Vote Retention

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey. ​

Survey Instrument

The survey instrument was designed by Probe Research.

Methodology

Between June 4th and 17th, 2019, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 258 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​

For more information:

Scott MacKay, President

(204) 926-6565

scott@probe-research.com