Although the federal Conservatives remain the most popular party in Manitoba, their support has slipped slightly as the third-place New Democratic Party makes modest gains, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds.

Currently, slightly fewer than four-in-ten decided and leaning Manitobans would support the Erin O’Toole-led federal Conservative party (37%, down from 40% in September). Support for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains consistent at 32 per cent (-1% vs. September), while the Jagmeet Singh-led NDP now have the backing of nearly one-quarter of Manitobans with a federal party preference (24%, up from 21%). The Green Party of Canada under new leader Annamie Paul is unchanged at five per cent. Overall, 10 per cent of Manitobans are undecided.

Federal Party Support - Manitoba

The Liberals remain the most popular party in Winnipeg, although its sizable lead has eroded slightly during the past three months (39%, down from 42%). NDP support in Winnipeg is up by the same margin (27%, +3% vs. September). More than one-quarter of Winnipeg voters also back the federal Conservatives (27%, -1%). The Liberals continue to hold large leads in southwest and southeast Winnipeg and a slight advantage in northwest Winnipeg. The three parties are in a statistical tie in northeast Winnipeg, while the NDP has a large advantage in the Core area.

Federal Party Support - Winnipeg
Federal Party Support - Winnipeg by Neighbourhood

Outside Winnipeg, more than one-half of decided and leaning voters still prefer the Conservatives, although the party’s lead in this region has decreased slightly in the past three months (from 57% to 53%).

The Conservatives and the NDP are statistically tied in support among younger voters aged 18-34, while the Liberals and Conservatives are deadlocked among those over the age of 35. The Conservatives also continue to have more support among men and those with lower levels of formal education, with women and university graduates more partial to the Liberals.

Federal Party Support by Demographics

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at:


Between November 24th and December 4th, 2020, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 277 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample based on known age, gender and previous provincial voting patterns of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​