A Probe Research survey conducted in March 2020 shows voter support for the governing Progressive Conservative party in Manitoba remains steady.
The survey - conducted between March 10th and 24th, 2020, shows that more than four-in-ten Manitobans continue to support Premier Brian Pallister and his Progressive Conservative government (43%, up from 42% in December). Support for Wab Kinew and the Manitoba NDP decreased slightly between December and March (33%, -3%). Meanwhile, the proportion of voters who would cast ballots for Dougald Lamont and the Manitoba Liberals (14%, +1%) and James Beddome and the provincial Green party (8%, no change) remained steady. Fourteen per cent of voters are undecided or would not share a party preference.
In Winnipeg, the NDP lead over the Progressive Conservatives (38% vs. 33% respectively) is narrower compared to December, with nearly one-in-five urban voters preferring the Manitoba Liberals (17%, +1%) and one-in-ten opting for the provincial Greens (10%, +3%).
Outside Winnipeg, nearly six-in-ten say they would vote for a Progressive Conservative candidate in their riding (57%, vs. 25% NDP, 11% for the Liberals and 5% for the Greens). PC support also remains quite high among men, older voters and those with lower levels of formal education.
This information on voting preferences in Manitoba has not been released to date, but is being released for posterity and to maintain the trendline for future soundings.
About the Probe Research Omnibus
For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/
Methodology
Between March 10th and 24th, 2020, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 265 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.
Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.
