As the 2019 federal election campaign reaches the half-way mark, Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party enjoys strong support from Manitoba voters and are especially dominant among the province’s male, rural, high-income and older residents. For its part, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party earns disproportionate support from women, Winnipeg voters and those with post-secondary degrees.

Sept 2019 Federal Support

Changes in party support patterns since a pre-writ Probe Research survey taken in June are minimal, except for Green Party support which, after a short-lived rally, declined four points over the summer.

Tracking of Federal Party Support

Within the city of Winnipeg, where the Liberals are defending seven of the city’s eight federal seats, support for the governing party has declined by a full 20 percentage points since the 2015 election – suggesting new Conservative or NDP MPs may be elected in some of these city ridings.

Winnipeg residents Support Tracking

Within Winnipeg, the clear strengthening of NDP support since the 2015 election (NDP support is up by 10 points in the city) may also factor into the ultimate outcome - especially in inner-city ridings where that party now receives notable support.

Winnipeg Region Support
Party Support - MB Socio-Demographics

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/

Methodology

  • Between Sept. 17th and 26th, 2019, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.
  • With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
  • Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 279 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.
  • Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.
  • The survey instrument was designed by Probe Research.