After becoming Manitoba's most popular political party in December, the NDP’s lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives continues to widen, according to a new Probe Research poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press. The opposition’s lead over the PCs province-wide has expanded to six percentage points. In Winnipeg, where many election campaigns are won or lost, the NDP has a 22-point advantage over the PCs.

March 2021 provincial party support tracking

Regionally, the PCs enjoy their greatest levels of support outside of Winnipeg (50% vs. 32% NDP). Within the capital city itself, the governing party is now trailing in all regions of Winnipeg, including the southern suburbs, as nearly one-half of Winnipeggers (49%) would cast a ballot for a NDP candidate in their constituency.

March 2021 provincial party support tracking in Winnipeg

Party leadership is also now problematic for the PCs with almost two-thirds of the province's voters voicing strong (46%) or moderate (16%) criticism of the leadership of PC Premier Brian Pallister.  Importantly, fully one in three voters who cast PC ballots in the last provincial election (34%) now disapprove of the leadership of Premier Pallister.

overall party leadership approval

Manitoba party leader approval by vote last

Meanwhile, opposition NDP leader Wab Kinew's leadership performance meets with the approval of a majority of voters across the province (53%) with only about one in three voters (36%) expressing disapproval of this leadership. Manitoba Liberal leader Dougald Lamont and provincial Green Party leader James Beddome still suffer from a lack of public recognition. Fully one in three adults were unable to assess Lamont, rising to more than one-half unsure about Beddome.

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at:


Between March 10th and 26th, 2021 Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 429 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 321 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 250 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​