A new Probe Research survey for the Free Press finds support for the provincial NDP has risen to its highest level yet. Premier Wab Kinew and the New Democrats continue to build on their popularity, with six in 10 Manitobans (60%) indicating they would vote for this party. While the NDP has enjoyed a significant lead since the 2023 election, this is the highest mark it has recorded since then.
Province-wide support for the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) slid for a second straight quarter. Only 29 per cent would back this party (-6% since March and -3% compared to December). Seven per cent of decided and leaning voters would back the Manitoba Liberals. Overall, 18 per cent of those surveyed are undecided.
The NDP is being propelled by rising popularity in rural and northern Manitoba. While the party’s support in Winnipeg remains incredibly high and stable, its popularity has jumped 12 percentage points since June (from 42% to 54%) – mainly at the expense of the third-place Liberals. Older voters are also moving solidly into the NDP camp. Support for the party among those 55+ has increased nine points since June (from 55% to 64%).
The PCs are losing what support they have in suburban Winnipeg. While PC support in rural and northern Manitoba is stable, today only 22 per cent of Winnipeg voters would cast a ballot for Obby Khan and the PCs (-7% vs. March). The PCs are far behind the NDP in all areas of the city (and sit third behind the Manitoba Liberals in inner city constituencies). But the biggest drop comes in outer suburban neighbourhoods that the PCs need to win back to compete for government again.
Wab Kinew remains personally very popular, while the opposition leaders struggle to make an impression. Two-thirds of Manitobans approve of the job Wab Kinew is doing as premier and NDP leader (68%, up from 63% last year). As with his party, Kinew’s popularity is rising among older voters and those in rural and northern Manitoba.
Only three in 10 approve of the job PC leader Obby Khan is doing (compared to 44% who disapprove and 25% unsure). Khan’s favourability numbers are down slightly (-3%) from last year. Only one in five approve of Liberal leader Willard Reaves’ performance, with half of Manitobans having no opinion.
Methodology
Abacus Data (previously Probe Research) surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between August 28 and September 14, 2026.
Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 481 Manitoba residents randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 154 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 164 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 201 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Abacus Data reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.
The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. SPSS software was used to conduct all statistical analysis.
About the Manitoba Omnibus
For nearly 30 years, Probe Research has conducted quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on many different social, cultural and public policy topics. The Manitoba Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.
The survey was designed by Abacus Data in close consultation with the Free Press.
