The federal Conservatives, under newly selected leader Erin O’Toole, have re-taken top spot among Manitoba voters, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds.

Four-in-ten decided and leaning Manitoba voters now back the federal Conservatives (40%, up from 33% in June). Support for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, has decreased slightly in the past three months (33%, down from 36%). One-in-five continue to prefer Jagmeet Singh and the NDP (21%, -1%) while support for the leaderless Green Party of Canada remains steady at five per cent (no change). Overall, 13 per cent of Manitobans are undecided.

federal vote intention in Manitoba - September 2020

The Liberals remain the top choice among Winnipeg voters, with more than four-in-ten continuing to prefer the current governing party (42%, down from 45% in June). While support for the Conservatives among urban voters remains well back of the Liberals, the party’s level of support has rebounded in Winnipeg during the past three months (from 19% to 28%) while support for the NDP decreased slightly (24%, -3%). The Liberals remain strongest in southeast, southwest and northwest Winnipeg, with the Conservatives now holding a slight lead in northeast Winnipeg and the NDP marginally ahead in the core. Outside Winnipeg, more than one-half of decided and leaning voters continue to support the Conservatives (57%, up from 54%).

federal vote intention Winnipeg vs. rural Manitoba - September 2020

federal vote intention by area of Winnipeg - September 2020

Like their provincial cousins, Conservative support is driven primarily by a huge advantage among those without a university or college education (60% vs. 19% Liberal and 16% NDP), as well as among men (47% vs. 30% Liberal). The federal Conservatives also have slightly higher levels of support among older voters and those with higher household incomes.


About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at:


Between September 8 and 17, 2020, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 317 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample based on known age, gender and previous provincial voting patterns of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​