Support for Manitoba’s governing Progressive Conservatives has plummeted to a recent low in the latest Probe Research survey for the Winnipeg Free Press, with nearly twice as many voters now favouring the opposition NDP.

If an election were held tomorrow, 47 per cent of voters would cast a ballot for Wab Kinew’s NDP, while only 29 per cent would vote for Premier Brian Pallister’s Tories. Fourteen per cent of decided and leaning voters prefer the Dougald Lamont-led Manitoba Liberals, while five per cent favour James Beddome and the provincial Greens. Overall, 17 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided.

June 2021 provincial vote intention tracking

In Winnipeg, this gap is a chasm. The NDP has a 33-point lead over the PCs in Winnipeg and enjoys healthy support in every corner of the city, including the battleground southern suburbs. Fewer than one-quarter of Winnipeg voters prefer the PCs - including just 13 per cent among Winnipeg women, as nearly two-thirds of female voters in the provincial capital would vote for the NDP.

June 2021 Winnipeg provincial vote intention tracking

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at:


Between June 2nd and 11th, 2021 Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 454 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 295 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 251 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​