A new Probe Research survey for the Winnipeg Free Press shows the provincial political scene in Manitoba remains largely unchanged, as Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP administration continue to govern with significant popular support.

Province-wide, 49 per cent of decided and leaning Manitoba voters would cast a ballot for an NDP candidate, which represents a slight decrease from the level of NDP support recorded in December (-2%) but remains above the 45 per cent of the vote the NDP captured in the October 2023 provincial election.

PC support currently sits at 37 per cent (-1% vs. December and -5% since the election), while the Manitoba Liberals are still preferred by slightly fewer than one in ten voters (8%, -1% vs. December and -3% vs. the election).

Overall, 13 per cent of Manitobans are undecided about who they would vote for in a provincial election.

graph showing support for Manitoba's main political parties in March 2024


The NDP continues to hold the support of more than one-half of Winnipeg residents (56%, -3% vs. December), with three in ten continuing to prefer the PCs (29%, -1%) and one in ten indicating they would vote for a Liberal candidate (11%, +1%).

Outside Winnipeg, there is also virtually no change. One-half continue to favour the PCs (50%, no change), with four in ten backing the NDP (39%, -1%) and only four per cent opting for the Liberals (+1%).

graph showing support for provincial parties by region as of March 2024

The NDP continues to hold a two-to-one advantage over the PCs among female voters (60% vs. 26% respectively), younger adults aged 18-34 (60% vs. 28%) and university graduates (62% vs. 25%). Men remain somewhat more likely to prefer the PCs (49% vs. 37%), and the two parties are tied in support among those aged 55+ (44% each).

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/


Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between March 5 and 18, 2024.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 493 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 288 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 219 members of Probe Research’s online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform. 

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. 

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample so that age, gender and regional characteristics properly reflect the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.