The latest Probe Research results for the Free Press shows the Manitoba NDP’s popularity remains very high province-wide, but enthusiasm for Premier Wab Kinew and his party is cooling a little.

More than one-half of Manitobans would vote for the NDP in a provincial election (53%, down from 57% in June). Progressive Conservative (PC) support has inched up slightly during the past three months (from 32% to 34%). Support for the Liberals is unchanged at eight per cent, with four per cent backing the Greens (+3% vs. June). One in five voters (22%) are undecided.

graph showing provincial voting intentions in Manitoba - September 2025

 

The NDP’s numbers are down slightly in both Winnipeg and outside the Perimeter. Within Winnipeg, NDP support has decreased to 57 per cent (-5% vs. June) – the lowest level of NDP support since June 2024. Support for other parties is up slightly, with the PCs at 27 per cent (+2%), the Liberals at 12 per cent (+1%) and the Greens at three per cent (+2%). Outside Winnipeg, the PCs are once again statistically tied with the NDP (44% vs. 47%), with the Greens slightly ahead of the Liberals in this region (5% vs. 3%).

graph showing provincial voting intentions in Winnipeg for September 2025

graph showing provincial voting intentions in rural and northern Manitoba for September 2025

Kinew's Leadership Score Remains High; Support For Khan Is Tepid So Far

Premier Wab Kinew also remains far more popular than the other party leaders, but his job approval numbers have ebbed slightly during the past year.  More than six in 10 Manitobans approve of Kinew’s leadership (63%, down from 67% in Sept. 2024) compared to nearly three in 10 who disapprove and one in 10 with no opinion. Not surprisingly, Kinew’s popularity is highest among the NDP’s voting base – women, Winnipeg residents and Indigenous people. One-third of current PC voters and more than eight in 10 Manitoba Liberal supporters also praise his leadership.

graph showing approval ratings for Manitoba's three main party leaders

New PC leader Obby Khan’s approval rating is similar to the result posted 12 months ago by the former interim party leader, Wayne Ewasko (34%, vs. 33% in Sept. 2024). Khan’s net popularity score is slightly negative (-5, as 39% disapprove of his performance), with more than one-quarter of Manitobans unable to provide an approval rating for the new PC leader. Khan has the backing of nearly eight in 10 current PC voters, with his approval rating also higher among men, rural and northern Manitobans and older Manitobans.

The Story

At the halfway mark of their first mandate, Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP government remain in an enviable position. The premier and his party remain much more popular with Manitobans than their Progressive Conservative (PC) rivals, now fronted by leader Obby Khan. But after nearly stealing a seemingly safe PC seat in western Manitoba by-election this August, the NDP’s popularity may be softening.

If the current trend holds, Kinew and the NDP will easily cruise to victory in the next provincial election. The NDP’s current level of support is still higher than the vote share the party achieved on election night in 2023. But, heading into this fall’s sitting of the legislature, Khan and the PCs seem to have stabilized their position and could be starting the long climb-back into contention.

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between September 4 and 14, 2025.

Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 536 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 184 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 15 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 265 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.

The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.​

The survey instrument was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.