The latest Probe Research federal voting intention numbers for the Free Press show the NDP under Avi Lewis is regaining some ground, especially in Winnipeg and among younger voters. The Liberals continue to lead overall in Manitoba, with Conservative support decreasing slightly in the past three months (35%, down from 39% in March). But NDP support is up slightly under new leader Avi Lewis (14%, up from 8%).
Conservative losses in Winnipeg are being countered by gains for the NDP, with Liberal support remaining quite flat. In Winnipeg, only one-quarter would now vote for the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives (26%, -6% in March), while the NDP are at 16 per cent in Winnipeg (+6%). The NDP’s biggest gains are in inner suburban neighbourhoods, where the party has now leapfrogged the Conservatives as the second-choice party.
The NDP has also gained noticeable support among women and younger voters. Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 33 per cent each, with the NDP not far behind at 25 per cent – 10 percentage points higher among this demographic group than it was in March.
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between May 25 and June 8, 2026.
Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 483 Manitoba residents randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 151 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 170 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 196 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.
The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.
The survey was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and complies with its Public Opinion Research Standards. All research conducted by Probe Research is based on responses from real human respondents.
