The next federal election in Manitoba could be shaping up as a three-way contest, as support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) continues to edge higher at the expense of the Liberals and Conservatives, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds.

Although the Conservatives remain the most popular federal party in the province, fewer than one-in-three Manitobans now back the Erin O’Toole-led party (32%, down from 37% in March). The NDP is now statistically tied with the federal Liberals in Manitoba (28% and 29% respectively). Support for Jagmeet Singh’s federal NDP has inched up three percentage points since March, while support for the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals is unchanged. Meanwhile, seven per cent would vote for a Green party candidate (+1% vs. March) while four per cent would cast a ballot for another party’s candidate. Overall, 16 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided.

chart showing federal party support in Manitoba - tracking

The Liberals are clinging to a narrow lead in Winnipeg over the NDP (35% vs. 32% respectively), with only one-quarter of Winnipeg voters (26%) preferring the Conservatives. The NDP now leads the other parties in the northern portions of Winnipeg and the Core area, while the Liberals lead their rivals in southwest and southeast Winnipeg. Outside Winnipeg, support for the Conservatives has slipped dramatically (from 53% in March to 42% in this current sounding). However, the party still holds a sizable lead over both the NDP and Liberals beyond Winnipeg’s Perimeter Highway.

federal party support by region

The federal NDP’s newfound strength in Manitoba is greatest among younger voters aged 18-34 and Indigenous citizens, with women also slightly more likely to prefer the NDP to the Liberals. Conservative support remains strongest among men, older voters and those with less formal education, while university-educated Manitobans are most likely to prefer the Liberals.


About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at:


Between June 2nd and 11th, 2021 Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 454 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 295 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 251 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​