Support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in Manitoba remains strong, with the party increasing slightly in popularity as 2022 draws to a close. Province-wide, 46 per cent of Manitobans would cast ballots for a NDP candidate in their constituency (+2 percentage points vs. September), while 35 per cent would vote for the governing PCs (-2 points). The third-place Manitoba Liberals have also slipped slightly (from 15% in September to 13%), while three per cent would cast a ballot for a Green Party candidate (unchanged) and two per cent would vote for another party. Overall, 17 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided or prefer not to say which party would earn their vote.

graph showing Manitoba-wide party support

Within Winnipeg, NDP support has increased slightly (55%, up from 52% in September). Urban voters are now slightly more likely to back the PCs (27%, +2 points) and less likely to prefer the Liberals (15%, -4 points). The NDP holds strong leads in most areas of Winnipeg, including a significant advantage in southwest Winnipeg, with the two parties statistically tied in the northwest area of the city. In rural and northern Manitoba, 49 per cent of decided and leaning voters remain partial to the PCs (-6 points vs. September) compared to 32 per cent who would vote for the NDP (+1).

graph showing party support in Winnipeg

graph showing party support in Winnipeg by quadrant

 

The gender chasm between the NDP and PCs remains strong province-wide. Female voters overwhelmingly prefer the NDP (57% vs. 26% who prefer the PCs), with the PCs holding an advantage with men (45% vs. 35%). The NDP leads among most demographic groups, particularly younger adults and university graduates, and is especially strong among those who identify as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Intersex, Asexual and Two-Spirit Plus (LGBTQIA2S+).

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between Nov. 22 and Dec. 5, 2022.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 763 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent telephoned operator and 237 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​