While the opposition Manitoba New Democrats continue to lead the governing Progressive Conservatives in popularity, the gap between these two political rivals has narrowed since December. The NDP would receive the support of 44 per cent of decided voters if an election were held tomorrow while the PCs trail with 38 per cent. This six percentage point gulf between the two parties is now down from an 11-point advantage for the NDP in December. Meanwhile, support for the Manitoba Liberal Party has slipped for the second consecutive quarter and now sits at nine per cent province-wide. Fewer than one in five Manitoba adults (17%) are undecided, will not vote, or prefer not to say which party they favour.

chart showing Manitoba-wide politics results for March 2023

Within Winnipeg, the gap in support between the two major parties has also closed somewhat since December, although the NDP continues to enjoy a substantial lead (53% NDP versus 30% PC). Only one in ten decided Winnipeg voters (10%) favour the Liberals. Outside Winnipeg, the figures are nearly reversed, as nearly one-half favour the PCs (52% vs. 31% NDP and 8% Liberal).

chart showing Winnipeg only results for March 2023

A clear gender gap remains, with the NDP continuing to enjoy strong support from women voters (51% of women would vote NDP and only 29% would vote PC), while the PCs are the party of choice for men (48% of men would vote PC and only 37% are NDP-aligned). Younger voters also express disproportionate levels of support for the NDP (53% of those under 35 would vote NDP) although middle-aged and older voters are split between the two major parties.

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between March 8 and 20, 2023.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 444 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 277 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 279 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​