One year after Manitobans re-elected a Progressive Conservative government, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press shows the PCs continue to hold the largest share of voter support. Indeed, support for Brian Pallister’s party is down by only three percentage points on the anniversary of its re-election.
The latest numbers show that four-in-ten decided and leaning voters prefer the PCs (43%, up from 38% in June). Support for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) now sits at 34 per cent (down from 36% in June). Sixteen per cent of Manitobans would cast ballots for a provincial Liberal candidate in their constituency (-2% vs. June), while five per cent prefer the provincial Green Party (-2%). Sixteen per cent of all Manitobans surveyed are undecided.
While the PC lead continues to be sustained by its support in rural Manitoba where nearly six-in-ten (58%) back the governing party, the NDP continues to hold the lead in popular support in Winnipeg. Within Winnipeg, four-in-ten prefer the NDP (40%, -4% vs. June) while PC support has rebounded significantly to 32% (+7% vs. June). One-in-five urban voters endorse the Liberals (22%, +1%), with five per cent backing the provincial Greens (-3%). The NDP leads the PCs in northwest and northeast Winnipeg and the core area, with the PCs holding a slight advantage over the NDP in the southeast quadrant of the city. The three main parties all within the statistical margin of error in southwest Winnipeg.
The PCs continue to benefit from a significant gap in support among those without any post-secondary education. Six-in-ten of those with a high school diploma or less prefer the PCs (62% vs. 26% NDP). Those with a university degree are more likely to favour the NDP (40% vs. 32% PC). The PCs also continue to enjoy a higher degree of support among men (48% vs. 29% NDP), with the two parties tied in voter support among women (38% NDP vs. 37% PC).
About the Probe Research Omnibus
For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between September 8 and 17, 2020.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 317 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.
Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample based on known age, gender and previous provincial voting patterns of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.
