The latest Probe Research survey for the Free Press finds that in Manitoba, 44 per cent of decided and leaning voters would cast a ballot for new Prime Minister Mark Carney and the governing Liberals. Back in December, under Justin Trudeau, the Liberals sat in third place with just 19 per cent support. This means support for the Liberals has more than doubled in three months.

Across the province, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives slid 10 points in the past three months (from 52% in December to 42% today). The Liberals are also taking a great deal of support from Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Today, only one in 10 Manitobans would cast ballots for this party (9%, down from 24% in December). Indeed, support for the NDP, which was remarkably stable for months and months, has tanked, particularly in Winnipeg. A very low proportion of Manitobans (8%) are undecided about which party to vote for.

The Liberal lead is now incredibly high in Winnipeg, where more than one-half of decided and leaning voters prefer the Liberals (54%, up from 24% in December). Conservative support sits at 31 per cent (-12% vs. December) with the NDP at nine per cent (-20%). Outside Winnipeg, there is much less erosion of Conservative support (58%, -7% vs. December), but the Liberals would now earn the votes of three in 10 rural and northern residents (30%, +18%). NDP support has also collapsed in this region (9%, -8%) but not as dramatically as in Winnipeg.

 

 

Other highlights from the survey include:

 

• The Liberals have taken the lead by re-forming their 2021 voter coalition and snatching the support of more than one-half of those who voted for the NDP and nearly one in five of those who voted for the Conservatives four years ago. The Liberals have also gained a great deal of support among older voters and women during the past three months. Only younger men remain solidly in the Conservative camp.
• Just over a month ago, nearly two-thirds of Manitobans expected the Conservatives to win the next federal election. Today, Manitobans feel it’s a much tighter race. They are split on whether the Liberals or Conservatives will form the next government, with about one in five unsure.
• One-half of Manitobans are also keen to go the polls now. Only one in 10 want to wait until later this spring, but nearly one in five want to cast a ballot as scheduled in October 2025. (One in five also have no preference). Despite their party’s weakening position, Conservatives are most eager to vote now, with a higher share of Liberal and NDP voters preferring to delay the vote until later in the year.

The Story

What a difference three months makes. The Liberals appear to be back from the dead in Manitoba. Their current level of support is comparable to 2015, when the Liberals won six of Winnipeg’s eight seats and formed a majority government in Parliament.

As older Manitobans, women and ex-NDP supporters flock to the red team, the likelihood of the Conservatives winning back seats in Winnipeg – especially to the degree that seemed possible three months ago – appears to be much lower. While things can certainly shift during an election campaign in a very volatile environment, this sudden change may put the Liberals in the unexpected position of potentially gaining seats in Manitoba.

Meanwhile, the NDP enters the campaign in a position of weakness, even in Winnipeg. New Democrats will have to fight even harder to keep their three seats – Winnipeg Centre, Elmwood-Transcona and Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski.

However, there are a few silver linings for the Conservatives. While the Liberals have increased their support to a significant degree in Winnipeg, the party’s support in rural Manitoba remains lower than it was in 2015. As well, unlike in the 2021 election, the populist People’s Party of Canada (PPC) is a non-factor and is not bleeding away Conservative support in rural and suburban areas.

As well, the new boundaries for Winnipeg West and Elmwood-Transcona, which take in rural, more Conservative-friendly areas outside the Perimeter Highway, may also help the Conservatives as they defend Winnipeg West from the Liberals and try to take Elmwood-Transcona from the NDP.

It did not look this way a few months ago – when the Conservatives held a commanding lead, even in Winnipeg – but the coming election is shaping up to be an incredible contest.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between March 4 and 16, 2025.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 497 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 313 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 190 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Probe weighted the data by age, gender, region and educational attainment so that the sample properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to do all statistical analysis.​