A new Probe Research poll for the Free Press shows Winnipeg residents enter the municipal election season with a negative view about their city – and their incumbent mayor. Two-thirds of Winnipeg residents indicate the quality of life in the city has deteriorated in the past four years, with only 15 per cent believing things have become better and 17 per cent seeing things stay the same.
Faced with this, only one in five Winnipeggers believe incumbent mayor Scott Gillingham should be re-elected for another term, with nearly one-half wanting a different person in charge of the City and one-third unsure. Gillingham has more fans among men, higher-income earners and those in outer suburban areas, while older citizens are more likely to want someone else to take office after the October municipal election. Provincial Progressive Conservative (PC) and federal Conservative voters are also more likely than others to want change at Winnipeg city hall.
Winnipeggers do not have a high degree of faith in the next city council to make major headway solving the city’s most pressing issues. Fewer than one in 10 see the next set of elected officials making a major difference, with one-third believing they could make a minor difference addressing Winnipeg’s challenges. Fully one-third think they will make no difference, with one-quarter unsure. A majority of residents think the next mayor and council will make some progress improving streets, roads and other basic infrastructure, with about one-half believing they could make the city safer and downtown more vibrant. Only four in 10 think the next mayor and council will make life in Winnipeg more affordable.
The three main issues for Winnipeggers are tightly interconnected. More than one-quarter identify crime and public safety as the top issue facing Winnipeg, with a similar proportion (27%) pointing to poverty and homelessness as the main challenge. Meanwhile, slightly more than one in five highlight the addictions crisis as the city’s main challenge. The cost of living (13%), infrastructure (8%), health care (6%) and affordable housing (5%) are the other main issues Winnipeggers are concerned about.
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 600 Winnipeg adults between May 25 and June 8, 2026.
Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 284 Winnipeg residents randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 88 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 110 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 118 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.
With a sample of 600, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 4.0 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Winnipeg had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Probe reached out to Winnipeggers through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.
The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the city’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.
Coding/analysis of open-ended responses completed with the MQO A.I. Hub platform. This is a Canadian-hosted platform that uses OpenAI’s technology through a Zero Data Retention workflow, which means that data entered into the platform are never stored on data servers nor used to train AI models. All coding was tested and verified with experienced human coders.
The survey was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.
