Less than a year after losing significant support among Manitoba voters, the federal Liberals have rebounded and are now the most popular federal party in the province, a new Probe Research survey for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals enjoy the support of more than one-third of decided and leaning Manitoba voters (36%) – a 10 percentage point increase compared to what the party polled in Manitoba in the October 2019 federal election. The Liberals have now eclipsed the Conservatives, who are only the preferred choice of 33 per cent of Manitoba voters – down from nearly one-half (45%) who cast ballots for this party last October. One-in-five (22%, +2%) back the NDP, while five per cent support the Greens. Twelve per cent of all Manitobans are undecided.

June 2020 federal vote intention tracking


The erosion of Conservative support is most pronounced in Winnipeg, where the party now sits in third place with the support of fewer than one-in-five decided voters (19%, down from 34% in October 2019). Nearly one-half of Winnipeg voters prefer the Liberals (45%, compared to 36% on election day), with support for the NDP inching up during the past year (27%, +3%).

June 2020 federal vote intention by region


The Liberals are strongest in southwest, southeast and northwest Winnipeg, while the NDP enjoys significant leads in the core and northeast areas of the city that comprise the two Winnipeg seats they currently hold in Parliament.

federal vote intention by area of Winnipeg


The silver lining for the Conservatives is their support outside Winnipeg remains relatively steady, with the party continuing to hold a commanding lead over its rivals (54% vs. 23% Liberal and 14% NDP).

Liberal support is significantly higher among women (41% vs. 27% for the Conservatives and 25% for the NDP), as well as among older voters and those with higher levels of education and household income.


About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/


Between June 2 and 11, 2020, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 221 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​