The gap between the opposition New Democrats and governing Progressive Conservatives continues to widen in both Winnipeg and the rest of the province, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds.
As the spring session of the Manitoba Legislature gets underway, the NDP enjoys the support of 44 per cent decided and leaning Manitoba voters (+2% vs. December 2021). Support for Premier Heather Stefanson and the governing PCs has slipped slightly (from 37% to 34%) while the Manitoba Liberals have experienced a slight bump in support province-wide (+3% to 15%). Seven per cent prefer a party not represented in the Legislature, including two percent who would vote for a Green Party candidate (-2% vs. December). Overall, 16 per cent of Manitobans are undecided on which party to support.
In Winnipeg, the NDP now has the support of more than one-half of decided or leaning voters (52%, +2 vs. December), with the Liberals also seeing an uptick in support (18%, +3%) at the expense of the PCs (23%, -4%). The NDP has a significant lead in all areas of Winnipeg, with the Liberals slightly ahead of the PCs in southwest Winnipeg – which includes the long-time constituency of Fort Whyte, which the PCs narrowly retained over the Liberals in a by-election on March 22. Outside Winnipeg, meanwhile, more than one-half (51%) continue to back the PCs, with NDP support up slightly since December (31%, +3%).
The PCs’ long-standing advantage over the NDP among older voters has eroded, with the two parties virtually tied in support among those aged 55 and over (37% and 39% respectively). The NDP also continues to hold a massive edge in support among female voters, as well as among younger adults and Indigenous and racialized Manitobans.
About the Probe Research Omnibus
For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between March 9 and 21, 2022.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
The sample consists of 390 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 363 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 247 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.
Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.
Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.
