A new Probe Research survey for the Free Press finds Manitoba’s political scene remains incredibly stable and consistent to close out the year. There has been little movement to report both in the aftermath of the 2025 federal election and new leadership chosen for the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.

Provincially, Wab Kinew and the NDP finish 2025 close to how they started it – with more than one-half of Manitoba voters (53%) indicating they would cast a ballot for the current governing party. With new PC leader Obby Khan, one-third of Manitobans say they would vote for his party (32%, -2% vs. September), while slightly fewer than one in ten prefer Willard Reaves and the Liberals (9%, +1%).

graph showing provincial vote intention in Manitoba - province wide

The NDP remains buoyed by its massive advantage within Winnipeg (59% vs. 25% for the PCs), while the two parties are tied in rural and northern Manitoba (43% each). The NDP coalition crosses all demographic groups, including a 12-point advantage among men.

 

Federally, meanwhile, Mark Carney and the Liberals close out the year with a five-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (43% vs. 38%), with 14 per cent indicating they would back the federal NDP and six per cent preferring other parties.

graph showing federal vote intention in Manitoba - province-wide

Conservative support is down two points province-wide compared to April and four points within Winnipeg (28% vs. 32%). Liberal support is virtually unchanged throughout the province, with the Conservatives remaining significantly more popular in rural and northern Manitoba (53%) – yet below where they stood in late 2024, when it looked as if they would win a massive majority government.

Liberal support is buoyed by the party’s strong showing among those aged 55+ and women. The Conservatives hold a slight lead among male voters and those under 55. NDP support is highest among younger voters and drops off significantly among those 55+.

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between November 25 and December 10, 2025.

Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 370 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 166 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 238 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 226 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.

The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.​

The survey was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.

 

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.