The latest Probe Research survey on Manitoba politics for the Free Press shows the PCs enter the summer months in a slightly weaker position than when the Legislative session began.
Following a raucous and confrontational time at the Manitoba Legislature, the governing NDP has solidified its lead over the opposition Progressive Conservatives (PCs) – with PC support dipping slightly in the past three months (to 32%, down from 35% in March). NDP support is completely unchanged at 55 per cent, with eight per cent opting for the Manitoba Liberals (+2% vs. March) and five per cent for other parties. Overall, 16 per cent of Manitobans are undecided about which party to support.
PC support slips in Winnipeg, especially in older suburban neighbourhoods. Only one-quarter of Winnipeg voters back the PCs, with support for the party dropping back to where it was in December. This includes a seven-point decrease for the PCs in inner suburban areas compared to March. City-wide, 63 per cent now back the NDP (+3% vs. March) while nine per cent prefer the Liberals (+1%).
Outside Winnipeg, the PCs and NDP are tied once again (42% each), with Liberal support up slightly (7%, +3% vs. March).
In terms of demographic categories, the NDP holds a strong lead in all categories, with including a 28-point advantage among women and an eight-point lead among men. The NDP lead is especially strong among younger voters, but persists with older Manitobans too.
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between May 25 and June 8, 2026.
Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 483 Manitoba residents randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 151 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 170 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 196 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.
The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.
The survey was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.
