The latest Probe Research survey for the Free Press shows very little overall change during the past three months. The main takeaway is that shrinking support for Manitoba’s third-place Liberals is giving some lift to both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives.

Premier Wab Kinew and the governing NDP’s popularity remains very high – 55 per cent would vote for this party today, up from 53 per cent in December. Support for Obby Khan and the PCs has also inched up (35%, up from 32%). Support for the provincial Liberals has fallen, down to six per cent (-3% vs. December). Sixteen per cent of all voters are undecided.

graph showing provincial vote intentions in Manitoba for March 2026

Most crucially for the PCs, its support within Winnipeg is up four percentage points from December (29%, up from 25%). Outside Winnipeg, the NDP has regained a slight lead over the PCs (47% vs. 43%) after both parties being tied at 43 per cent in December. The Liberals currently sit at eight per cent support in Winnipeg (-3% vs. December) and just four per cent outside the Perimeter (-2%). The NDP still has a wide lead in all areas of the city, including a 25-point advantage over the PCs in the vote-rich outer suburbs.

graph showing provincial voting intentions in Winnipeg - March 2026

The gender gap is wider now than it was in December. A higher share of women now prefer the NDP (63%, up from 56% three months ago). The PCs have narrowed the gap among men and are now just four points behind the NDP (42% vs. 46%). images and graph showing provincial voting intentions among men and women for March 2026

Among different age groups, the NDP lead also remains strong. Voters aged 35-54 have moved slightly towards the PCs in the past three months, but the NDP still has a 10-point advantage among this voter segment (50% vs. 40%). The NDP also holds nearly a two-to-one advantage among younger voters (61% vs. 33%) and a slightly lower yet still strong lead among those aged 55+ (54% vs. 31%).

graph showing provincial voting intentions by age for March 2026

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba between March 1 and 17, 2026.

Respondents were contacted using four different methods. The sample includes 466 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 139 randomly recruited via text message/SMS, 195 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 200 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey using an online platform.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.

The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.​

The survey was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Free Press.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.