Coming out of its first budget and full legislative session, Manitoba’s NDP government continues to hold a commanding lead in terms of provincial party support.
A new Probe Research survey for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that more than one-half of decided and leaning Manitoba voters would vote for the Premier Wab Kinew and NDP if an election were held today (51%, up from 49% in March 2024). The Progressive Conservatives, who will select a permanent leader early next year, remain steady at 38 per cent support (+1% vs. March), while support for the Manitoba Liberals decreased slightly in this wave (6%, -2% vs. March). Three per cent would vote for other parties not represented in the provincial legislature. Overall, 15 per cent of adult Manitobans are undecided on which party they prefer.
Support for the NDP has increased in Winnipeg, where nearly six in ten prefer this party (59%, +3% vs. March). The NDP also holds commanding leads in all areas of Winnipeg – even in outer suburban areas, such as Tuxedo, that have historically voted for the PCs. PC support in Winnipeg remains unchanged at 29 per cent overall (and just 31 per cent in the outer suburbs), while fewer than one in ten now back the Manitoba Liberals in Winnipeg (9%, down from 11% in March).
Outside Winnipeg, PC support has increased slightly (from 50% in March to 52% today), with four in ten preferring the NDP (40%, +1%) and Liberal support dropping to almost negligible levels (2%, -2% vs. March).
The NDP leads among virtually all demographic groups, with the exception of men and those who did not graduate from university. Among men, however, the two parties are now nearly tied (46% PC vs. 44% NDP), whereas in March the PCs held an eight-point advantage (49% vs. 37%). The NDP also now holds a six-point advantage over the PCs among those aged 55+ (48% vs. 42%), whereas the two parties were tied at 44 per cent among this demographic group in March.
About the Probe Research Omnibus
For more than two decades, Probe Research has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between May 28 and June 9, 2024.
With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
The sample consists of 488 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 305 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 207 members of Probe Research’s online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.
Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.
Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample so that age, gender and regional characteristics properly reflect the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.
