If Manitobans could vote for America’s next president, they would make this province the bluest of blue states.

As Americans go to the polls Tuesday, a new Probe Research poll finds that Manitobans overwhelmingly prefer Kamala Harris as the next U.S. president. Seven in 10 Manitoba adults with a candidate preference (71%) would cast a ballot for Harris and Democratic vice-presidential running mate Tim Walz. This result is compared to fewer than one-quarter (24%) who would vote to make former Republican president Donald Trump America’s commander-in-chief again. Four per cent would vote for another third-party candidate. Overall, one in 10 (11%) of those surveyed are undecided.

Harris is the preferred presidential candidate among nearly all demographic groups, especially women, older adults and those living in Winnipeg. Trump has a higher degree of support among men, adults under the age of 55 and new Canadians. Those who prefer the provincial NDP are far more likely to vote for Harris if they could, whereas a slight majority of PC supporters would cast a ballot for Trump.

While Manitobans are much more likely to want Harris to become the first female U.S. president, they are less confident that she will triumph in this race. Slightly fewer than one-half expect Harris to win, with more than one-quarter expecting Trump to return to office and with three in 10 unsure.

Other key findings from this survey include:

• Manitobans are quite engaged in the presidential race. Nearly one-half report they are watching it very closely, with another four in 10 following it somewhat closely. Older Manitobans are most likely to be paying close attention to the race.
• Nearly three-quarters agree another Trump term would have very negative results for Canada. Trump’s time in office from 2016 to 2020 was marked by the renegotiation of the free trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and deteriorating relations between Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Conversely, three in 10 think a Harris presidency would have a very negative effect on Canada.
• Nearly two-thirds agree that more people will come to Manitoba and Canada to seek asylum if Trump wins. Following Trump’s 2016 win, the number of people who entered Canada from the U.S. on foot spiked, with many of these people claiming asylum after arriving. Given Trump’s focus on immigration and promises to deport thousands of people if he is re-elected, many Manitobans expect another surge of asylum seekers if Trump wins.
• A significant share of Manitobans are avoiding travel to the U.S. because of the political climate there.  Nearly four in 10 Manitobans agree they have delayed or cancelled plans to visit the U.S. within the next six months specifically because of the charged political environment and concerns about violence during this election season. The proportion of Manitobans who agree this is the case has increased slightly since Probe asked a similar question six years ago, during Trump’s time in office.

The Story

The 2024 U.S. presidential election promises to be a nailbiter, with a final, confirmed result not likely for days – or possibly weeks. Manitobans have a strong preference for the outcome in this race. They are not enthusiastic about the idea of Donald Trump returning to office for another four-year term.

Manitoba exported nearly $19 billion worth of goods and services to the U.S. in 2023. Each year, thousands of Manitobans drive to neighbouring North Dakota and Minnesota, as well as fly to Sunbelt states like Florida, Arizona, Texas and California during the winter.

Regardless of what happens between now and whoever is sworn in as the 45th U.S. president on January 20, 2025, Manitobans may significantly re-think their travel plans, opting for politically calmer places than the country next door.

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a representative sample of 800 adults residing in Manitoba from October 28 to November 1, 2024.

Those who responded to the online survey are members of Probe Research’s proprietary panel, as well as members of another national online panel.

Because an online panel is a non-probability sample, no margin of error can be ascribed. For the purposes of comparison, a probabilistic sample of N=800 Manitoba adults would have a margin of error of ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would also be higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Minor statistical weighting by age, region, gender and educational attainment has been applied to this sample to ensure that the characteristics properly reflect the known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​

The survey instrument was designed and paid for by Probe Research.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/