Even with a new leader and Manitoba’s first female premier, the post-Brian Pallister “bump” for the Progressive Conservatives appears to have stalled, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds.

Slightly more than one month into Premier Heather Stefanson’s tenure, the New Democratic Party lead over the governing PCs remains in place, even if PC support has increased slightly during the past three months (from 35% to 37%). NDP support remains unchanged since September (42%), while Liberal support is also unchanged at 12 per cent. Four per cent prefer the Green Party (+1% vs. September) and five per cent indicate they would vote for another party (-3%). Seventeen per cent of all Manitobans are undecided.

provincial vote intention in Manitoba - Dec 2021

There has been relatively little movement in seat-rich Winnipeg, where one-half of urban voters prefer the NDP (50%, -1% vs. September) compared to one-quarter who would vote for a PC candidate (27%, -1%) and 15 per cent who back the Liberals (-1%). Outside Winnipeg, more than one-half prefer the PCs (53%) versus 28 per cent for the NDP, eight per cent for the Liberals, four per cent for the Greens and seven per cent for other options.

provincial vote intention in Winnipeg - Dec 2021

While there has been relatively little movement in this latest survey, a voter retention analysis shows that during the past six months, the PCs have been able to win back a significant number of voters who cast ballots for the party in the 2019 election. While only two-thirds of 2019 PC voters were still with the party in June, today more than eight in ten (84%) would cast a ballot for one of this party’s candidates.

voter retention graph - June vs. December 2021

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/


Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between November 23 and December 5, 2021.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited 490 respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. Another 275 were randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR). In addition, 235 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.​ 

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​