This new Probe Research survey for the Free Press finds there is very little change in provincial voting intentions in Manitoba. The NDP continues to hold a massive lead, especially in Winnipeg. Nearly six in 10 decided and leaning voters prefer Premier Wab Kinew’s party (57%, up 4% from December), with one-third continuing to back the Progressive Conservatives (33%, -1%).

Provincial Liberal support has inched up slightly during the past six months (8%, up from 6% in December and 4% in September), with only two per cent preferring parties not represented in the Legislature. Overall, 12 per cent of those surveyed do not have a provincial party preference.

graph showing provincial voting intentions for March 2025

The NDP lead over the PCs in Winnipeg is at nearly 40 points, with 64 per cent of those living in Winnipeg preferring the NDP compared to 25 per cent who would cast a ballot for a PC candidate. One in 10 Winnipeg voters support the provincial Liberals (10%, +3% vs. December). 

The NDP’s lead over the PCs is massive in all areas of Winnipeg, including inner city neighbourhoods and the outlying suburbs. Outside Winnipeg, the PCs hold a narrow edge over the NDP (47% vs. 45%) that is within the statistical margin of error.

graph showing provincial party support in Winnipeg

The NDP’s enduring strength comes, in part, from former Tory voters. Nearly one in five voters who cast a ballot for the PCs in 2023 now prefer Kinew and the NDP. The PCs are only hanging onto seven in 10 of those who cast a ballot for their party less than two years ago.

graph showing provincial vote retention - March 2025 versus the 2023 provincial election

The Story

Despite the uncertainty and turmoil everywhere else, Manitoba’s political scene is placid.

Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP government remain enormously popular during these difficult times. Despite dealing with significant challenges at home and abroad, Manitoba’s governing party enters the year in a very strong position. With the provincial budget just released and a busy session of the Legislature underway, Kinew and the NDP maintain a strong popular support for their agenda.

The key thing to watch in the coming months will be the effect of a new Progressive Conservative (PC) leader in late April. Whether it is Obby Khan or Wally Daudrich, a new PC leader may refocus opposition to the NDP’s policies and give the current government a bigger public opinion challenge than it has faced so far. However, if the new Tory leader cannot revitalize the party and bring back those who voted PC in the last election to the fold, the NDP may get a prolonged spell of strong popularity.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between March 4 and 16, 2025.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 497 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 313 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 190 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Probe weighted the data by age, gender, region and educational attainment so that the sample properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to do all statistical analysis.​