What we’re watching in 2024
Happy new year from Probe Research! Here are three trends we’re watching in 2024.
Will Wab Kinew’s honeymoon last?
Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP government is enjoying some unusually sunny ways following its win last October. The NDP has increased its lead in the polls since election day, and we recently found four in ten Manitobans are genuinely excited about the new government. Just as many are willing to set aside some concerns and give the new guy and his team a chance. With a health care crisis, lingering inflation and deep worries about crime and homelessness, it may be difficult for the NDP to maintain this love affair with Manitoba voters, especially as Kinew prepares his first budget later this spring.
Will Manitobans bridge the climate divide?
Last March, our poll for the Winnipeg Free Press found that that two-thirds of Manitobans believe climate change is a real thing that’s happening and is caused by human activities. That left another 31% who are either climate change skeptics or full-blown deniers. After a summer of wildfires and a mostly brown Christmas across the prairies, will Manitobans get closer to a consensus on climate change?
Will our sense of belonging rebound?
In the summer of 2022, as the pandemic was receding, Winnipeggers reported the second-worst sense of “belonging” in two decades. Only six in ten Winnipeggers reported feeling a strong sense of attachment to their community. This was one of the worrisome trends Probe and the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives tracked for the Winnipeg Foundation's Vital Signs report, and a measure of our community health that hopefully recovers.
