With the federal Liberals winning another mandate, there has been more public discussion about western alienation and outright separation. Albertans may vote soon in a province-wide referendum about whether to stay or remain in Canada, as that province's provincial government has made it easier for a referendum on this topic to go ahead. While most talk of western alienation and going it alone focuses on Alberta and (to a lesser extent) Saskatchewan, Manitoba is not usually considered - until now. 

A new Probe Research poll for the Free Press finds that if given the choice about whether to remain in Canada or leave, a strong majority of Manitobans would vote to stay in Canada rather than separate alongside other western provinces. If Manitoba were to hold a referendum along the lines of what Alberta is considering, seven in 10 would choose to stay, including six in 10 who would definitely vote to stay and another one in 10 would probably remain in Canada. More than one in five, meanwhile, would choose to leave Canada (22%, including 14% who would definitely vote to leave). Seven per cent are undecided.

Support for leaving is concentrated in rural Manitoba, and among right-of-centre voters. Slight majorities of those who voted for the federal Conservatives in this year’s federal election and those who voted for the provincial Progressive Conservatives (PCs) in the 2023 provincial election would definitely or probably vote to leave Canada. There are three times as many “leave” supporters in rural and northern Manitoba as there are in Winnipeg, with men also more likely to be open to independence.

The vast majority of Manitobans agree discussing separation from Canada makes the country weaker. However, a large proportion also agree there are legitimate grievances with the federal government. More than eight in 10 think the separatism discussion coming out of Alberta make the country weaker in the face of U.S. tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st state. While this is a widely shared concern, more than six in 10 also say they don’t take these discussions very seriously.

At the same time, though, more than six in 10 agree people in the West have legitimate reason to be angry with the federal government. Manitobans are split, however, on whether having a federal Liberal government is bad for Western Canada, with nearly one-half agreeing with this sentiment and slightly more than one-half disagreeing.

Meanwhile, Manitobans' sense of pride in Canada remains quite strong, with more people expecting to celebrate Canada Day in a bigger way this year. Six in 10 feel prouder of Canada today than they did a year ago. While this is down from 77 per cent who felt this way in March, a majority still feel prouder of the country now. More than one-half expect to do more to celebrate Canada Day this year, with older Manitobans more likely to do more to mark the day in a bigger way.

The Story

Most Manitobans have a strong wish to remain part of Canada, but a surprisingly large minority would opt for independence. Compared to Alberta and Saskatchewan, in the past half-century, Manitoba has not expressed the same degree of frustration with the federal government. However, a sizable proportion of Manitobans – including majorities of federal and provincial Conservative supporters – would likely vote to leave Canada if a referendum was held in this province too.

In this regard, Manitoba is not all that different than Alberta, with a largely rural and frustrated base of right-leaning voters expressing dissatisfaction with a Liberal government in Ottawa and wondering if their province would be better off leaving Confederation. There is also a relatively broad degree of acknowledgement that people in western Canada are justified in their anger towards the federal government, which for the past decade has been a Liberal one.

The outpouring of pride in Canada in recent months remains quite strong, but even it seems to have diminished recently. While this will be a more exuberant Canada Day for some – especially older Manitobans – swept up in the “elbows up” fervor of the past few months, for others it will be a fairly typical summer holiday weekend.

Methodology

Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults between May 28 and June 10, 2025.

The sample includes 501 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 246 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 253 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.​

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.