A recent Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press indicates the post-election honeymoon appears to be waning for Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative government. Although the PCs remain the most popular provincial party, they have shed some support since the Sept. 10 election, with 42 per cent (-5%) currently indicating they would vote for a PC candidate in their riding.

Support for the NDP currently sits at 36 per cent (+5% vs. the election result) province-wide. NDP support has grown most notably in Winnipeg, where the party now holds a double-digit lead over the PCs (43% vs. 32% respectively). Support for the NDP in Winnipeg has increased seven points since Election Day, with PC support in the provincial capital eroding by nearly the same margin.

The Manitoba Liberals, meanwhile, remain the preferred party for slightly more than one in ten Manitoba voters (13%, -1% vs. the election), while the Greens currently sit at eight per cent (+2%). Overall, 15 per cent of Manitobans are undecided or refuse to say which party they would support in a hypothetical provincial election.

Provincial Support

Within Winnipeg, the NDP holds a strong advantage in voter support in the core area and has a narrow lead over the PCs in northeast Winnipeg. The two parties are statistically tied in northwest, southwest and southeast Winnipeg. Outside Winnipeg, more than one-half of decided or leaning voters prefer the PCs (56% vs. 25% who prefer the NDP).

Winnipeg Support
Winnipeg Support by Region

The PCs have a massive, 20-point advantage over the NDP among male voters province-wide (50% vs. 30% respectively). However, more than four in ten women (42%) prefer the NDP compared to one-third (33%) who would vote for a PC candidate. PC support also continues to be higher among older people and those with less formal education.

Party Support by Demographic

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

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Between Nov. 27th and Dec. 10th, 2019, Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Winnipeg had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby a live-voice operator randomly recruited respondents by telephone, inviting them to complete the survey via a secure online questionnaire. In addition, 305 randomly recruited Probe Research panel members were included in this general population adult sampling.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.