Elated. Optimistic. Hopeful. Ridiculous. And some rude words we shouldn’t publish.

In our most recent poll of 1,000 Manitobans, we experimented with new AI-supported tools to dig a little deeper into how we feel about Prime Minister Mark Carney and the recently re-elected Liberal government. We know that slightly more Manitobans are happy rather than unhappy about the Liberals winning a fourth term. But we also asked: what word would you use to describe how you feel about the election’s outcome?

image showing different sentiments about Mark Carney and the federal Liberal government, using a continuum from satisfaction and happiness to despair and fear

We found 10 overall themes. They range from satisfaction and happiness with the election result to a small number who question the legitimacy of the vote. Hope and relief are closely tied to satisfaction, with another key theme being Carney’s perceived competence and ability to lead Canada during a challenging time.

an image showing positive sentiments Manitobans express about Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal Liberal government

Moving down the continuum, we find some either accept the results half-heartedly or have mixed feelings about the prospect of yet another Liberal government. A significant proportion of Manitobans – many of whom live in rural areas and voted Conservative – express disappointment with the outcome, which is not surprising since the Conservatives seemed poised to win an overwhelming majority.

Some share even more negative sentiments. There are those who think Carney and his party are dishonest and unscrupulous. Others fear another Liberal term will be incredibly detrimental to Canada. A tiny number echo election denialists in the U.S., using words like rigged to describe the outcome.

image showing different negative comments from Manitobans about Mark Carney and the federal Liberal government

Although these attitudes point to majority buy-in among Manitobans in the Carney Liberal government’s early days, these emotions may change quickly if it is seen as not delivering on its promises.

About the Survey/Methodology

This question was asked on Probe Research's most recent quarterly Omnibus survey. This is a survey of a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults, conducted between May 28 and June 10, 2025.

The sample includes 501 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator, 246 randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 253 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Probe reached out to Manitobans through modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers. This ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this survey.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample has been weighted slightly by age, gender, region and educational attainment so it properly reflects the province’s population, based on Census data. Probe used SPSS software to conduct all statistical analysis.​

Response coding was assisted by the secure MQO A.I. Hub platform. This Canadian-hosted platform uses OpenAI’s technology through a Zero Data Retention workflow, which means that data entered into the platform are never stored on data servers nor used to train AI models.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more here.