Manitoba’s governing Progressive Conservatives are entering the summer stretch before the October 2023 provincial election with some positive momentum. After trailing the opposition New Democrats in popular support for nearly three years, the PCs are now tied with the NDP just a few months before the writ drop.

Province-wide, 41 per cent of decided voters would cast ballots for Premier Heather Stefanson and the PCs – up three points since March 2023 and six points since December 2022. Support for Wab Kinew’s NDP, meanwhile, has slid three points since March (41%, down from 44%). The Dougald Lamont-led Manitoba Liberals currently sit at 10 per cent (+1% vs. March), with five per cent backing the Greens (+1%) and three per cent opting for another party not represented in the Legislature (-1%). One in five Manitoba adults are undecided – a slight increase from March (20%, up from 17%).

graph showing Manitoba-wide party support

The NDP continues to hold a major lead in Winnipeg, but its advantage over the PCs has slipped somewhat. Nearly one-half of Winnipeg voters prefer the NDP (48%, down from 53%), while PC support inched up once again (32%, up from 30% in March and 27% in December). Twelve per cent prefer the Liberals (+2%) and five per cent would vote for the Greens (-1%). Outside Winnipeg, more than one-half plan to vote for a PC candidate (54%, up from 52% in March), while three in ten say they will vote NDP (30%, -1% vs. March).

graph showing party support in Winnipeg

Three-quarters (75%) of those who voted to re-elect the Brian Pallister led Progressive Conservatives in 2019 intend to vote again for the Progressive Conservatives on October 3. Importantly, however, more than one in ten of these 2019 PC voters are currently undecided in terms of which party they will support on October 3. The NDP are retaining more than eight in ten (83%) of their 2019 supporters. For their part, Manitoba Liberals are only holding 40 per cent of their 2019 support base – with much of this bleeding heavily to the NDP.

June 2023 vs. 2019 vote retention

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

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Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba between May 31 and June 13, 2023.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 per cent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 548 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator and 452 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR). All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​