A new Probe Research survey finds that while Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives still hold a significant lead in voter intention in Manitoba, the Liberals - who are about to choose a new leader - have rebounded.
Conservative support decreased from 52 per cent in December to 45 per cent in this latest survey. The Liberals, meanwhile, have jumped ahead of the NDP to second place among decided and leaning voters province-wide (28%, up from 22% in December), while the New Democrats slipped slightly to 22% (-2%). Three per cent would vote for the Green party and two per cent for other parties. Overall, 12 per cent of those surveyed are undecided.
In Winnipeg, the Liberals are statistically tied with the Conservatives (35% vs. 34%) after sitting in third place in December. NDP support remains relatively stable at 28% (-1% vs. December). This suggests the gains in Liberal support in Winnipeg appear to be coming directly from those who had been in favour of the Conservatives until now. As well, older voters, including both men and women over the age of 55, appear to be returning to the Liberal fold after expressing strong support for the Conservatives as recently as December. Conservative support remains relatively strong and steady among those aged 35-54, as well as among younger voters.
Although the Conservative lead has eroded, nearly two-thirds of Manitobans (65%) believe that party will win the federal election occurring this year. A significant proportion of Manitobans are also open to either a Conservative majority or minority government, with a notable number of NDP and Liberal voters indicating they could live with a Conservative minority in Parliament after the next election. More than one-half of Manitobans do not want another Liberal majority government, with this being the scenario Manitobans are least enthusiastic about.
Disclosure Statement
Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/
Methodology
Probe Research surveyed a representative sample of 600 adults residing in Manitoba from February 3-6, 2025.
Those who responded to the online survey are members of Probe Research’s proprietary panel, as well as members of another national online panel.
Because an online panel is a non-probability sample, no margin of error can be ascribed. For the purposes of comparison, a probabilistic sample of N=600 Manitoba adults would have a margin of error of ± 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would also be higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.
Minor statistical weighting by age, region, gender and educational attainment was applied to this sample to ensure it properly reflects the known attributes of the province’s population. Probe used SPSS software to conduct the statistical analysis.
The survey questions were designed and paid for by Probe Research.
